This being my first column for 2013 I was tempted to submit some predictions for the year. Before doing that I thought it wise to look back at the predictions I (and others) made during this time last year.
I predicted 20 stations would flip to country music in 2012. After CBS flipped to Country Radio late in 2011, I thought it would lead a rush to the format. I fell short by at least half. I thought there would be more top 100 market stations coming aboard last year. Not so. However, I am not going to back off thinking 2013 will see more stations coming into the fold. The music is just too good right now. It seems like more stations flipped to CHR. Top 40 music is as good as it’s been in years.
I predicted Miranda Lambert would continue to set the pace in 2012. That was pretty easy to predict, and she got even more influential in the last 12 months. I saw Carrie and Taylor kicking butt in 2012 and both had record breaking years.
I told you to watch for Brantley Gilbert, Luke Bryan, Easton Corbin and Jana Kramer in 2012. In 2013, I predict Thomas Rhett and Greg Bates are going to have breakout years.
I thought Ronnie Dunn would have a number one record in 2012. I missed that one. He has too much talent to be off the chart for so long. Kix is continuing to show strength and with him being on the radio as a host for about 40 hours a week, he should have a great 2013.
Last January I said, “The top 5 Country Radio performers for 2012 will be (in no particular order) Zac Brown Band, Blake Shelton, Carrie Underwood, Kenny Chesney and Miranda Lambert.” The top five were Luke Bryan, Eric Church, Jason Aldean, ZBB and Kenny Chesney. In 2013, I think Miranda will find her way into the top 5.
I predicted some major changes in the record company landscape but that was already in play in 2011, so not much danger of being wrong on that one. There were more changes than I originally thought, but things look settled today. We’ll look at it again next January.
Tim McGraw was in two of my predictions. I saw him and Kenny setting the summer on fire with their tour. I believe I mentioned this before the tour was officially announced. And before signing with his new label, I predicted Tim would be back big time on the radio. That was an easy prediction because he has been “big time on the radio” for 20 years now.
In 2013, I think Kenny is going to lead the way again on the No Shoes Nation tour with Eric Church as his support act. I have mentioned in this space that Eric’s show was the best one I saw in 2012 and he has the ability to hold an audience for 90 minutes.
I talked up HD radio one year ago. We did not see the kind of growth that I thought we would see in 2012 so I am going to stay with this prediction. Sooner or later both radio and the consumer are going to discover this is a treasure for the industry. Maybe there can be a partnership between the record industry and radio to program HD channels. Everyone can win, including the listener.
Regardless of the outcome from my 2012 predictions, I did better than the Mayans.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of MusicRow.)
